I can't tell you whether the Utahns will be eliminated on tonight's editions of "The Amazing Race" (8 p.m., Ch. 2) or "The Rebel Billionaire: Branson's Quest for the Best" (7 p.m., Ch. 13), but I feel confident in predicting what will happen after the episodes air.

Fox-owned KSTU-Ch. 13 will make a big deal out of "Rebel Billionaire" on its 9 p.m. newscast. CBS-owned KUTV-Ch. 2 will make a big deal out of "Amazing Race" on its 10 p.m. newscast.

In the course of their reports, each station will tell you that the show in question is a big hit. They've done it in past weeks.

And one of them will be lying.

"The Amazing Race" is nothing short of amazing in the ratings these days. Ratings-challenged for most of its previous six incarnations, the show is doing some of its best numbers ever on Tuesday nights — it's finishing first in the time slot among viewers, households and the all-important 18-49 demographic.

Last week, about 12 million viewers tuned in to "Race," where they saw Utah sisters Lena and Kristy Jensen narrowly avoid elimination.

(The Utahns were running at or near the front of the pack for most of that leg of the race . . . but then one little wrong turn that carried them miles out of the way left them in ninth overall. And the team that finished 10th was eliminated.)

Fellow Utahn Shawn Nelson wasn't in anywhere near as much danger on "The Rebel Billionaire." But only about a third as many viewers saw that. And, trust me, attracting only 4 million viewers is dreadful for one of the Big Four broadcast networks.

Fox has yanked shows off the air that have drawn more viewers than that.

When it was announced that, instead of handing out money, Virgin billionaire Richard Branson would make the winner of this show the president of his companies, I wondered what they would do for an encore. You can't make somebody else the president of the company next season, can you?

(Although there's no guarantee how long the winner will keep the job.)

But it's not going to be a problem. With ratings like this, there isn't going to be a second season.

Television ratings aren't always fair, of course — a lot of good shows don't get the audience they deserve, while mediocre or worse entries turn into hits.

But in this case, this is completely appropriate. "Amazing Race" remains the best reality show on TV. And one of the best shows, period.

But "The Rebel Billionaire" is, quite frankly, pretty much a bore that brings nothing new to the reality-TV table.

Which is nothing against Nelson. I hope he wins. Unlike most Fox reality shows, this one isn't offensive or twisted or mean-spirited. Unfortunately, it just isn't very good.