From Deseret News archives:

Defeat of Initiative 1 was huge surprise

Published: Monday, Nov. 22, 2004 2:49 p.m. MST
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Although blessed with a heartwarming theme of safeguarding our environment, the initiative was burdened with a complex structure to appease multiple interests. As the campaign manager for the Radioactive Waste Initiative in 2002, I faced similar challenges of a complicated ballot question. Utilizing sound advice provided by LaVarr and his partner Hugh Matheson (who later formed the Exoro Group), our opponents successfully labeled that initiative as too confusing and bureaucratic (remember, "Too many questions, too few answers," "It ends in a question mark!?" etc. and ad nauseam) Although good friends with Exoro (which provided PR assistance to the 2004 Open Space Initiative), I must admit to the delicious irony I enjoyed when Initiative 1 opponents used the tactics against LaVarr and Matheson that they employed against us in 2002.

The bottom line is that Initiative 1 was a tax increase of $150 million. Utahns will usually support bonding and other expenditures for schools, recreation centers and artistic endeavors — projects easily identified. Although offering the sunny prospects of enhancing our natural heritage, Initiative 1 strategists made the fatal error of not targeting specific areas that would be saved. Utahns expressed to pollsters their affinity for open space but conveyed fears of a tax boost at the voting booth.

Webb: It was a great party . . . while it lasted. One of my most poignant — and pathetic — memories of election night 2004 is the cheering, high-fiving and congratulatory speeches delivered when the 8 p.m. KSL TV exit poll projected an Initiative 1 victory.

Reality didn't hit until the wee hours when the real numbers rolled in and Initiative 1 (for which my firm provided strategic and PR advice) went down to ignominious defeat.

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So what happened to Initiative 1? Supporters worked hard to gather 130,000 signatures and fought legal battles to get on the ballot late in the election season. Prominent people and institutions like Jake Garn, Fred Ball, Lewis Billings, LaVell Edwards, Norma Matheson, Alexander Morrison, the Salt Lake Tribune and the KSL editorial board supported the initiative.

The campaign was reasonably well-funded, used sophisticated research to craft messages that clicked with voters, and the advertising campaign (done by a firm with broad ballot initiative experience) was superb.

Supporters were well aware of the lessons of Frank's 2002 initiative failure. One of my partners led the campaign to kill that initiative. We knew very well that complex ballot initiatives, particularly those that raise taxes, almost always contain within themselves the seeds of their own defeat. No matter how carefully crafted a complex proposal is, opponents will always find points on which to base the FUD factor — fear, uncertainty and doubt.

Because of that fact, we also knew that despite the very strong early support shown for the initiative in most polls, if significant opposition arose at the end with any decent amount of paid media firepower, we could easily lose.

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