From Deseret News archives:
Defeat of Initiative 1 was huge surprise
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The bottom line is that Initiative 1 was a tax increase of $150 million. Utahns will usually support bonding and other expenditures for schools, recreation centers and artistic endeavors projects easily identified. Although offering the sunny prospects of enhancing our natural heritage, Initiative 1 strategists made the fatal error of not targeting specific areas that would be saved. Utahns expressed to pollsters their affinity for open space but conveyed fears of a tax boost at the voting booth.
Webb: It was a great party . . . while it lasted. One of my most poignant and pathetic memories of election night 2004 is the cheering, high-fiving and congratulatory speeches delivered when the 8 p.m. KSL TV exit poll projected an Initiative 1 victory.
Reality didn't hit until the wee hours when the real numbers rolled in and Initiative 1 (for which my firm provided strategic and PR advice) went down to ignominious defeat.
The campaign was reasonably well-funded, used sophisticated research to craft messages that clicked with voters, and the advertising campaign (done by a firm with broad ballot initiative experience) was superb.
Supporters were well aware of the lessons of Frank's 2002 initiative failure. One of my partners led the campaign to kill that initiative. We knew very well that complex ballot initiatives, particularly those that raise taxes, almost always contain within themselves the seeds of their own defeat. No matter how carefully crafted a complex proposal is, opponents will always find points on which to base the FUD factor fear, uncertainty and doubt.
Because of that fact, we also knew that despite the very strong early support shown for the initiative in most polls, if significant opposition arose at the end with any decent amount of paid media firepower, we could easily lose.
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