Same-sex nuptials in danger

It appears that proposed state constitutional amendments to ban same-sex marriage in Utah and 10 other states have strong backing, with only a few races expected to be close.

On Tuesday, voters in Utah, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma and Oregon will decide whether to constitutionally define marriage as the union of a man and a woman.

While in Utah, neither side is yet ready to admit victory or defeat, those watching the races nationally predict that the only close races will be in Oregon, and possibly the swing states Michigan and Ohio.

Matt Coles, attorney for the ACLU National Lesbian and Gay Rights Project, sees those three states as the only ones in which amendment opponents stand a chance on Tuesday.

Coles sees the likelihood of most of those amendments passing as unfortunate and unprecedented, especially since some 39 states — including Utah — already have clearly defined traditional marriage laws on their books.

"Taking this policy out of the hands of legislators is quite an extraordinary thing to do," he said. "If this process goes forward, it kills the political dialogue on the issue. It's important not to have that happen."

Tom McClusky, director of government affairs for Family Research Council, is confident that the marriage amendments will pass in every state where they are on the ballot, as they did in Missouri and Louisiana earlier this year. McClusky also expects a new spate of lawsuits challenging the amendments. Nebraska's amendment is under challenge in federal court. Louisiana's, which was approved earlier this year, has been overturned in state court on procedural grounds. That ruling is under appeal.

"I'm sure on Nov. 3, there will be 11 court cases filed in 11 different states," McClusky said. "We applaud state amendments; we'll fight for 50 of them, but without a federal marriage amendment, the courts will still try to overrule them."

Democrats have seen the constitutional amendments as a tactic to boost the turnout of President Bush's evangelical Christian base, and evidence from states where the bans have already been voted on suggest that the issue does increase turnout.

In Missouri, an initiative to ban gay marriage boosted turnout in the Aug. 5 primary election to a record. The ban passed by 71 percent to 29 percent, and almost 40,000 more Missourians voted on the issue than voted in the race for governor.

In Louisiana, a ban on gay marriage passed on Sept. 18 by a margin of 78 percent to 22 percent, with almost 800,000 people turning out to vote during Hurricane Ivan. Louisiana voter registration is now at an all-time high.

Polls show the gay-marriage bans are currently ahead in all 11 states, with support as high as 80 percent in Arkansas and Oklahoma. In Utah, the most recent Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV poll shows 63 percent support for the measure.

The margins are closer in some battleground states. In Oregon, an Oct. 19 CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll showed the measure ahead, 50 percent to 43 percent; in Michigan, a September survey by Glengariff Group Inc. of Chicago showed the ban leading by 52 percent to 35 percent.

"It's been a rallying cry," said Pastor Glenn Plummer, 49, of the 400-member Ambassadors for Christ Church in Detroit. "It's possible we could wake up one morning and marriage will no longer be what it has always been."

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Contributing: Bloomberg News

E-mail: dbulkeley@desnews.com