But Rep. Matheson needs more than that to win in a 2nd District, which normally votes more than 60 percent Republican. Matheson needs Republican LDS voters, too.

And Jones found that among those polled, Rep. Matheson gets 21 percent of the Republican vote and 36 percent of the active LDS vote. "That's critical for him," said Jones.

In 2002, Swallow barely lost to Rep. Matheson, falling less than 1 percentage point short. Pundits said at the time Matheson had to carry the Salt Lake County portion of the 2nd District by 60 percent, which he did — but only barely.

The new poll shows that Rep. Matheson is getting 63 percent of the county vote.

"He needs that 60 percent again this year. And the survey shows he's barely there," said Jones, an independent pollster who conducted a poll for Swallow earlier this year.

Jones also asked how likely people were to vote Tuesday. Historically, those with a high interest in the races actually do vote on Election Day. Among those who said they were "very likely" to vote, Matheson still leads Swallow, 51-44 percent.

Jones surveyed 426 voters in the 2nd District race for a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percent.

Governor's race

In the governor's race, Jones said the 1,228 people he surveyed "knew both the Huntsman and Matheson names well, but they really didn't know many differences between (the stands of) the two men."

People recognized that both men said education and economic development were tops on their agenda but didn't always know which candidate placed which issue first.

"Because Utahns (when voting) are often two-to-one Republican, that gives Huntsman a decided edge," said Jones, who has also done polling for the Huntsman campaign this year. The survey statewide had a margin of error of 2.8 percent.

Jones said because Huntsman had to go through a tough Republican convention and primary, he was likely out in the public more. "A number of people commented they had met Huntsman personally, and that usually helps."

Utahns elected their last Democratic governor in 1980, when the late Gov. Scott M. Matheson, father to the two Matheson candidates this year, won re-election.

But over those 24 years, 2nd District voters have elected Democratic congressmen six times. And just a month ago, Rep. Matheson held a 30-point lead over Swallow.

Swallow is closing on Rep. Matheson for several reasons, Jones believes.

First, it appears that anti-Matheson TV ads and mailers are having an impact.