It's no surprise: Utah's population is growing. A lot.

By 2030, according to projections, there will be about 4 million Utahns. That number could hit 5 million by 2050.

As the number of Utahns increases, community and state planners are struggling to keep the availability of services and jobs growing at a similar rate — not an easy task, a panel of growth experts told University of Utah political science students Monday.

"The state of Utah is at a crisis point," Utah League of Cities and Towns executive director Ken Bullock told the audience. "We are going to grow. That is inevitable. But it's not necessarily positive for communities."

Bullock said population growth pits cities and towns against state government in the fight for revenue, and the Utah's current tax structure puts communities at a disadvantage.

On average, cities and towns are dependent on sales taxes for 51 percent of their revenue. Thirty-two percent comes from property taxes and 17 percent from franchise taxes.

The problem this creates, Bullock said, is a tendency toward so-called "big box" stores, leading to a "not in my back yard" mentality that is evident in places like Centerville and Riverton, where residents worry that growth is eroding their small-town way of life.

Bullock said ULCT has been working with civic and state leaders to come up with a fix — but it will have to come incrementally, and there is no "magic answer."

Panel member Kelly Matthews, the executive vice president of Wells Fargo, said the source of dollars flowing into Utah's economy is at a turning point. In the early days, Utah's natural resources created a strong export product, and the mining industry flourished. Next came a period during which federal money for roads, water and defense boosted the economy. And then it was the technology sector.

A major source of the state's growth is a high birthrate, and Matthews said it is vital that education be adequately funded — "a very difficult political question."

Robert Grow, Envision Utah's founding chairman, said large companies looking for new places to do business look primarily for areas that have a large, well-educated pool of potential employees.

The good news: Monday's panel sees active participation and a lot of good ideas coming from Utah's municipal and state leaders.

"We're having the most healthy debate I've seen on this," Grow said.

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