Voter, beware of polls disguised as the truth

The Tribune's departure from tradition is significant because media outlets always utilize their own political analysis because they control the quality of methodology, questions, respondents etc. Polls conducted by campaigns can be easily manipulated (shocking!) and are usually rejected by reporters. Realizing the Deseret Morning News was about to print their poll, the Tribune was forced to run the story on Wednesday. Politicos noted the Tribune did not perform the standard feature of providing dates when the survey was conducted, verifying the Matheson poll had prompted the Tribune to stall.

The Deseret Morning News poll, conducted by the well-respected Dan Jones, shows Huntsman leading by 9 points. Because of his enormous local polling experience, most authorities believe Jones is closer to the mark. Thus, Huntsman is leading, but the gubernatorial election is still up for grabs.

Webb: Weird Polls. For better or for worse, survey research is becoming a bigger part of campaigns and news media political coverage in every election cycle. We're inundated by polls and, as Frank suggests, we've recently witnessed some pretty strange survey numbers.

The three recent gubernatorial polls, showing wildly divergent results, obviously can't all be accurate. The Tribune poll, done by Valley Research, gave Huntsman a 16-point lead. On the other extreme, the candidates were dead even, 42-42, in the Matheson campaign poll, done by GarinHartYang. That's a hefty difference. The Morning News' Dan Jones & Associates survey came out in the middle, with Huntsman up nine points.

So who is right? I 'd throw out both polls on the extremes and go with Jones. The Hart poll had some strange wrinkles, and sometimes out-of-state firms, even good ones, don't understand Utah political nuances, and they draw a bad sample.

The Valley Research Poll is hard to figure. Another question on the same survey had Initiative 1 losing, while at least three other polls have shown the initiative ahead by wide margins. (Disclosure: My firm, the Exoro Group, is supporting the initiative.) I don't believe either the Tribune or Valley Research was trying to skew anything, but I wouldn't trust that particular poll.

Any survey is just a snapshot in time, and circumstances can change quickly. Voters need to be smart consumers of political news, including survey results. Read widely, don't accept everything at face value, and consult with people you trust.

County Mayor. The final three weeks in the county mayoral race will be great political theater. Democrat Peter Corroon, by default as much as anything else, is clearly the frontrunner at this point, even though he hasn't defined himself very well. Republicans have their white knight in Ellis Ivory, but he's dragging a big weight into battle in the form of Nancy Workman.