The $400,000 question this week is: Can Ellis Ivory actually win a write-in Salt Lake County mayor's race?

The immediate answer would be "no."

A write-in has not won a major race in Utah before, and history is a pretty good indicator of the future.

But that "no" answer is too simplistic and shoot-from-the-hip, says Joe Cannon, Utah state Republican Party chairman. "The support Ellis is seeing is unprecedented. Just unprecedented," says Cannon.

Maybe.

But the odds against Ivory are great. And it's not just historic precedent. There's the question of time: Ivory's campaign won't take off until three weeks before the Nov. 2 election. There's organization: Until his Wednesday announcement, he had none. There's name I.D.: He's never run for office before, although many people know his family business — Ivory Homes. There's an actual campaign message: Ivory has one, but it's not exactly uplifting. He says he won't take a salary, won't drive a county car, won't use a county credit card and won't take any influence-pedaling campaign contributions.

Basically, Ivory is saying he won't be a crook or be bought off. That standard alone shows the sad state of county politics.

But Ivory will have some help.

While officially the state GOP must recognize that current county Mayor Nancy Workman has the Republican Party's nomination — and Workman won't quit the race — in all other ways, says Cannon, the power, money and organization of the Republican Party will be behind Ivory.

Ivory says he won't be running as a Republican. And, of course, his name won't be on the ballot; won't be under the GOP banner. But he's clearly a Republican; served as the state party's national committeeman in the 1970s.

Cannon says Ivory will have the party's county voter lists and will be part of the state party's massive turn-out-the-vote effort just before the Nov. 2 election. If any big-shot Republicans come to town — like Vice President Dick Cheney showing up to help GOP 2nd District candidate John Swallow — you can bet Ivory will be there.

This past week, the Salt Lake County GOP's central committee voted to support Ivory, removing its endorsement from Workman, who faces a post-election trial on two felony charges of misuse of public funds for paying for two bookkeepers for a boys-and-girls club where Workman's daughter was the financial manager.

Thursday morning, the state party's Elephant Club — the big hitters who donate $1,000 or so to the party — endorsed Ivory. "And I will personally endorse him, as well," says Cannon, who is not in the habit of endorsing non-GOP candidates.