Utah economy 'pauses'

Job creation in Utah lagged last month, while the state's unemployment rate crept higher. But a state economist said Tuesday he is not alarmed at the economy's latest "pause."

Utah's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for July was 4.8 percent, slightly higher than June's revised 4.6 percent, according to the Utah Department of Workforce Services. About 58,000 Utahns were unemployed last month, compared to 66,400 during the same period a year ago.

Total employment, the year-over change in the number of nonfarm wage and salaried jobs, was steady at 1.9 percent. During the last 12 months, the department estimated that 20,500 jobs have been created in Utah.

"The unemployment fluctuation is not enough to worry about, not enough to really even call it a change," said Mark Knold, Workforce Services' senior economist. "The year-over job growth is what it was last month. That tells me that there may be a little bit of a pause going on right now. 'Pause' means businesses aren't adding jobs."

Concerns over energy costs continue to worry businesses, Knold said, causing some caution in hiring practices.

"People are saying, 'Let me err on the side of caution and not hire new workers or push onward, because I'm not quite sure where the energy thing is going to take us,' " Knold said. "They're saying, 'Let's just make sure this uptick in the economy is sustainable.' "

Professional and business services saw the biggest gain, adding 6,200 jobs over the past 12 months. Trade, transportation and utilities added 4,000 jobs, while the education and health sector brought on 3,400 new workers. The only category reporting a decline was financial activities, which trimmed 600 jobs in the year-over period.

Utah's employment results followed, though not as startlingly, national employment figures for July. The U.S. Labor Department reported earlier this month that the economy managed to create just 32,000 new jobs in July, the smallest monthly job increase this year and far below the 200,000-plus jobs that economists had been expecting.

That does not mean Utah accounted for the bulk of all jobs created in the United States. The Labor Department's report reflects month-to-month changes, while Utah calculates its total employment changes over a 12-month period.

Knold expressed optimism that the economy is still in recovery mode, despite July's flat economic data.

"I made some comments earlier in the year that I thought there would be employment growth throughout 2004, with some starts and stops in the process. This could be a stop, or a pause," he said. "I'm not leaning in the direction of a reversal (in the economy). It could happen, but I still don't think the probabilities of that are great."

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E-mail: jnii@desnews.com