From Deseret News archives:

War and economy will decide election

Published: Wednesday, July 14, 2004 7:21 a.m. MDT
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Edwards was not Kerry's first possible choice as the running mate who could make the Democratic ticket catch fire and brush such practical political problems aside. Though her name may have never publicly crossed Kerry's lips in this regard, and though she may not have been offered it, it could not have escaped the Kerry campaign's fantasizing that Hillary Clinton would have made a sensational running mate. The problem there is that while a Kerry-Clinton defeat in 2004 would position her nicely for her own presidential bid in 2008, a Kerry-Clinton win in 2004, with the possibility of a second term for Kerry lasting to 2012, would frustrate her own presidential ambitions.

Kerry's second best choice would have been Sen. John McCain, the Republican gadfly whose political outspokenness and record of heroism as a prisoner of war in North Vietnam have made him a major vote-getter. The potential lure of the vice presidency was not enough to make McCain forsake his Republican loyalties.

Thus the engaging John Edwards got the slot.

If Iraq has moved credibly toward stability by November, and the U.S. economy is booming, how will voters decide between Bush-Cheney and Kerry-Edwards, men whose personal backgrounds are so similar, but whose political ideologies are so far apart?

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There will be impassioned debate between them on tax-cutting, tax-hiking, educational deficiencies, health care, the cost of prescription medicines, illegal immigration and how the influx should be handled. There will be talk of the values the respective candidates, and the American people, believe in. Sharply in question will be the issue of same-sex marriage. Bush has come out strongly against it. Kerry-Edwards are opposed but support civil unions. But surely the most critical concern on the minds of Americans will be security and the ongoing threat posed by terrorism, whether or not al-Qaida will have struck again on American soil before Election Day.

Unless I misjudge the mood of Congress, there is going to be enormous pressure for a shake-up and reorganization of the intelligence community. That will not be accomplished before Election Day. The voters' perception of the leadership and character of the team sent to the White House to lead the war against terrorism in the four years thereafter will be critical in deciding whether it is Bush-Cheney or Kerry-Edwards.


John Hughes is editor and chief operating officer of the Deseret Morning News. He is a former editor of the Christian Science Monitor, which syndicates this column. E-mail: hughes@desnews.com

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