"We have 6 to 6 1/2 feet of water in the marina now," he said.

That makes most 35-foot and larger boats unable to use the marina, because generally the longer the length, the deeper the keel. If the lake does drop an extra foot this year, that will mean 25-foot and larger boats won't be able to launch from the marina.

Quick stressed there are plenty of sailing opportunities on the open lake, despite the low levels.

Steve Ingram, owner of Salt Island Adventures, which offers regular boat cruises on the Great Salt Lake, doesn't foresee any problems with his business this year because of the low lake levels.

He said misconceptions and negative publicity about the lake are the nemesis of his business.

"I've seen predictions come and go," he said of his decades of boating experience on the lake, "It all seems to be the flip of a coin."

Gwynn said the shrinking lake could create an even greater dust bowl in the southern portion of Farmington Bay than it did last year.

Depending on wind direction, it is also possible that a smaller lake could produce more of a "lake stink" problem for Davis County communities. "That smell could give us a problem," Gwynn said.

Salinity in the north arm is likely to remain at about 26 percent. However, Gwynn said the south arm salinity level could increase from the 15-16 percent range to 16-17 percent, because less water becomes more concentrated with salt.

He doesn't think that will affect the lake's brine shrimp population negatively. But the lower water level will mean that lake industries that extract minerals, may have to deepen their intake canals.

The Audubon Society has said in the past that a smaller lake won't adversely affect shorebirds, but fewer freshwater marshes around the lake because of the drought is a related hindrance.

"There's no end in sight," Gwynn said of the shrinking lake. While it won't totally disappear — as some scientific experts predicted in both the 19th and 20th centuries when it was in a downturn — the question of when a wet cycle will come along to refill it isn't on any horizon yet.

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E-mail: lynn@desnews.com