Webb: The Jon Huntsman Jr.-Nolan Karras Republican gubernatorial primary is shaping up as one terrific contest. Huntsman starts with higher name identification and more money, but he's not going to coast to an easy victory.

In fact, one of Huntsman's challenges is to manage expectations. If the conventional wisdom is that he will easily win this thing, then when the race inevitably tightens he'll be seen as losing momentum.

Despite all the fun and excitement of the recent state GOP convention, the average Republican voter isn't even paying attention to politics. When voters do start paying attention and focus on the candidates, it will be a very close race.

The themes of the short, intense campaign are starting to take shape. Karras will try to pound home his "substance vs. image" message. He will contrast his broad experience in state government, education and a variety of business ventures, particularly his fiscal capabilities, with Huntsman's experience that has been focused mostly at the federal level and in one large family corporation. Huntsman, age 44, is 15 years younger than Karras, 59.

Huntsman will respond with his "New Day for Utah" theme, arguing that Utah needs a new generation of leadership. The implication will be that Karras is part of the old establishment, with extremely close ties to the Leavitt-Walker administration that has ruled Utah for 12 years, and has run out of steam. Karras will be portrayed as status quo, business-as-usual, part of a generation that has had its day, while Huntsman will bring fresh ideas and new energy to state government.

Underlying the basic themes will be some other fascinating things to watch for. The campaign will be very short, and the election will be decided by relatively few Republican voters. The temptation will therefore exist to accept help from well-funded large organizations that already have in place networks of motivated and organized voters.

The large government employee unions like the Utah Education Association and the Utah Public Employees Association, in addition to the PTA and the higher education community are, no doubt, poised to get involved in the race, covertly if not overtly.

And Karras would be the likely beneficiary of their involvement. They know him and like him and he has struck moderate positions on issues like tuition tax credits.

But if Karras is perceived as the candidate favored by the government unions, he runs the risk of alienating conservative groups, taxpayer groups and key business groups. It also plays into the perception that he is the status quo, business-as-usual candidate, supported by special interests groups.

The big question is, who can turn out the votes in a June 22 closed Republican primary? Both candidates will have to run intense grass-roots campaigns that reach out, individually, to the relatively small number of citizens who are likely to vote. Big mass media buys won't help much.