The poll offers ample evidence that the contest remains fluid:

• Just 8 percentage points separate Kerry, in first place, from Gephardt, in fourth.

• Nearly half of those who have a candidate preference — 47 percent — say they still could be persuaded to support someone else.

• Five percent of likely caucus participants are still undecided.

Poll participant Alicia Carriquiry, associate provost and professor of statistics at Iowa State University, said she might wait until Monday night before she makes up her mind.

"I have two or three favorites: Kerry, Edwards and Dean," said Carriquiry, 46. "I like Dean's position on the war. I like Kerry's position on taxes and the economy. I cannot pinpoint what I like about Edwards, but he makes pretty good sense."

There are other variables that make it difficult to predict the outcome of the Democratic caucuses.

While Kerry and Edwards seem to have the momentum, Dean and Gephardt have strong campaign organizations that appear capable of getting large numbers of their supporters to the caucuses. Dean has tried hard to draw young people and other newcomers into the party in support of his candidacy.

The Iowa Poll shows that a 55 percent majority of likely caucusgoers definitely plan to attend the events, while another 45 percent say they probably will go.

In another sign of strength for Kerry, he is supported by 33 percent of those definitely planning to attend the caucuses. Dean comes in second in this group with 21 percent. Edwards and Gephardt follow with 19 percent and 16 percent, respectively.

The race has seen a surprising reversal of fortunes for Dean and Gephardt, who took turns leading Iowa Polls in July and November, and for Kerry and Edwards, who lagged behind in those polls and seemed destined to finish third or worse in the caucuses. Now, all bets are off.

During polling for the Register last week, Kerry's two-day rolling average climbed from 24 percent on Tuesday and Wednesday to 29 percent on Thursday and Friday. Edwards' level of support increased a little more gradually.

Support for Dean dropped by 7 points, to 16 percent on Thursday and Friday.

"He's had just a terrible two weeks, part of which has to do with the fact his opponents have been hammering him pretty good. And part of it is self-inflicted wounds with some misstatements," said Peverill Squire, a University of Iowa political science professor.

In addition, "some Iowans are beginning to have reservations about whether he can win in November, and I think the undecideds are breaking to other candidates," Squire said.