Hill came close to closure in 1995 despite then having the highest rankings among the Air Force's five repair-and-supply air logistics centers. Even when it survived, former President Bill Clinton tried to sidestep orders by technically closing two competing bases, but in reality keeping them open by converting their existing workforces into private contractors. He lost a protracted battle with Congress over that.

Utah officials also argued that studies said the Defense Depot Ogden was the most cost-efficient of all such depots, but it was ordered closed in the last round in 1995. In the first round in 1988, however, no one was surprised when Ft. Douglas was ordered closed, which most viewed as old and relatively unneeded.

McCall says, "I am confident that if analysis is done fairly and the process is free from politics that Hill will come through this. We have an excellent base, and it is certainly a national asset. We just don't know what outside pressures could change that (perception). So we have to be prepared."

The timeline

The Pentagon is now gathering data about the military importance of each base, its efficiency, its economic importance and whether missions might be more efficiently combined or relocated elsewhere.

By the end of this month, the Pentagon must issue its proposed criteria for determining which bases to close. After a 30-day comment period and review, it is expected to finalize the criteria in February. By law, the top priority must be the military importance of a base. Congress has until March 15 to reject proposed criteria, otherwise they become final.

Also in February, the Pentagon must submit to Congress its future force structure plan and infrastructure inventory — and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld must certify to Congress that a 2005 closure round fits in with that and is still needed.

Over the next year, the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marines will decide which bases they would prefer to close. The secretary of defense must submit his final proposals by May 16, 2005 to the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission (BRAC).

The nine members of that commission must be appointed by March 15, 2005. Its makeup hinges on the outcome of next year's elections. The new president will choose three members. The new speaker of the House and Senate majority leader choose two each. And minority leaders in the House and Senate choose one each. The commission may accept, reject or modify the defense secretary's proposals (including adding bases not previously recommended), and it is expected to hold meetings nationwide to allow bases and their supporters to make pitches to survive. Its final list must be sent to the president by Sept. 8, 2005.