Utah index falls to its lowest level in 5 years

Published: Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2008 12:16 a.m. MST
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Another indication that the local economy slipped in November comes from a monthly survey of corporate supply managers.

The Utah Business Conditions Index for November fell to its lowest point in at least 5 1/2 years, according to a Goss Institute for Economic Research report released Monday. Utah's index was 44.4, down from 46.0 in October.

Utah's index was based on a survey of members of the Utah chapter of the National Association of Purchasing Management. The Goss Institute uses the same methodology as a national Institute for Supply Management survey, using a range between zero and 100, with an index over 50 indicating an expansionary economy during the next three to six months.

The national index fell to 36.2 in November, a 26-year low. That was a steeper-than-expected drop from the October reading of 38.9 and underscored that the hard economic times were beginning to have a major effect on manufacturing.

Among the components of the Utah index was a new-orders figure, which was 42.5 in November. Production was at 50.1, delivery lead time was 52.3, the inventories component was 36.1 and employment was 41.3.

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"Supply managers in the state reported that the national credit crisis has caused their companies to shelve many projects on the drawing board," Ernie Goss, the Goss Institute's chief executive officer, said about Utah's index.

"In March of this year, there were more Utahns working in the state than ever before," he said in a prepared statement. "Each month since then, the state has lost jobs. I expect the job losses to continue well into 2009, especially for firms with linkages to the automobile industry and for firms that depend heavily on sales to Great Britain."

Utah is part of a three-state region — along with Wyoming and Colorado — that saw its index fall to 46.2 in November, down from October's 53.2 and September's 56.3.

"The national economic recession — combined with a pullback in business activity in the region's large mining and natural resources — was responsible for November's much weaker readings," said Goss, who previously conducted the surveys for Creighton University.

Dragging down the regional index was an employment index at 43.3, despite it rising from October's 42.3. "A much less healthy job market was reported by durable goods manufacturers, especially those firms with connections to the waning vehicle-manufacturing industry," Goss said.

Colorado's index was 44.3, down from October's 45.0 and September's 58.5. Wyoming's figure was 51.4, down from October's 73.4 and September's 75.2.


Contributing: Associated Press.


E-mail: bwallace@desnews.com

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