Economy, Iraq war big election issues

Polling editor says race and age were not the top factors

Published: Friday, Nov. 21, 2008 11:04 p.m. MST
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PROVO — The crumbling economy and a declining interest in the Iraq war — not race or age — were the factors that most affected the 2008 election, a national polling editor said Friday.

"(People) spent a lot of time talking about race, but I don't think it was ultimately as big an issue as some might have thought," said Jon Cohen, director of polling for the Washington Post. "No discussion of 2008 can ignore the real, striking importance of the war in Iraq and the deterioration of the economy. (Those issues) are really central to understanding the way the primaries came out the way they did."

Cohen, who directs polling and has written for the newspaper since 2006, presented his data to a group of political science professors, students and government leaders Friday in the inaugural Roberts Post-Election Conference at Brigham Young University.

He pointed out that three years ago, the conflict in Iraq was the biggest issue facing the country. However, as it continued, more and more citizens questioned the country's involvement, and as they did, ratings begin to decline for President George W. Bush.

"As the public turns against the war, they turn against the president in roughly equal measure," Cohen says, pointing to two nearly identical plummeting lines on a graph.

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In fact, those lines have been going steadily down for the last 47 months, an unprecedented span, Cohen said.

That fact worked against John McCain in the 2008 election, Cohen said as an aside, with nearly 43 percent of the electorate equating McCain as a third term for Bush.

By December 2007, the war in Iraq had taken a backseat to the economy, where it still remains. Yet some Americans began to consider that the troops were making progress, and McCain took the opportunity to stay connected to Iraq and play up his international experience, Cohen said.

President-elect Barack Obama, on the other hand, focused on the economy and expressed more "feeling-your-pain," sentiment, Cohen said.

A Washington Post poll in March asked citizens, "Who do you trust more to handle the economy?"

From that poll all the way through Election Day, Obama held the advantage, Cohen said. McCain narrowed it after the Republican convention with his pick of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, but he never got closer than five points to Obama's ratings, Cohen said.

The economy continued to decline and after Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy in mid September, 81 percent of those polled said they were somewhat or very worried about the direction of the nation's economy, Cohen said.

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