The Utah House this past week started a new round of ethical hearings on two of its members.

And this is my prediction, made, of course, before I (or anyone, actually,) hear all of the testimony.

The charges against Reps. Greg Hughes, R-Draper, and Phil Riesen, D-Millcreek, will either be dropped, for both of them, or both of them will be disciplined in the most minor way. (I do believe the committee will take its charge seriously and try to do its best.)

If either man is found guilty of some charge, the least penalty is a censure, said Ethics Committee Chairman Todd Kiser, R-Sandy.

That carries no real penalty — no fine, no loss of membership privilege — but certainly would not look good in either Hughes' or Riesen's re-election bid — to end with victory or defeat on Nov. 4.

Both men indignantly deny all charges against them.

As I see it, the charges against Hughes are much more serious than those against Riesen. But just because the charges are more serious does not mean they are any more true.

Hughes is accused of offering former GOP House member Susan Lawrence tens of thousands of dollars in campaign cash if she would change her private school voucher vote, or at the very least just walk off the House floor and not vote on vouchers, in the 2007 Legislature.

That is the charge most repeated in the media. But Hughes is also accused of bullying lobbyists into donating to his 2007 pro-voucher political issues committee, threatening lobbyists that their bills could be held in the House Rules Committee (where he is vice chairman and could become chairman if he wins re-election) if they supported GOP challengers to Republican incumbents, and threatened people if he was challenged within the Republican Party.

Those charges could prove Hughes' undoing, even if he escapes the Lawrence accusation.

Riesen is basically accused of leaking the ethics charges against Hughes to KSL-TV a day before they were actually filed. Riesen says he did that, but that such an act is not a breach of legislative ethics.

Asking legislators to stop leaking stuff to the press is like asking them to stop taking lobbyists' lunches — it just happens all the time. A lot of legislators could be called up on ethics complaints on that score.

Even Hughes' alleged actions are being rationalized in Capitol hallways. The arguments:

Everyone asks lobbyists for money.

Everyone tries to raise funds from special-interest groups by saying they agree with the stands of those special interests.

Everyone tries to discourage challengers within their own political party.

Everyone hints that the powerful chairmanship positions they hold can be used to help those who agree with them. And so on.